15 years ago, when I first began learning about climate change, I came to three conclusions. First, averting a climatic catastrophe would be the most difficult endeavour ever. Second, there was no other way to achieve it but to make strong investments in the development and use of renewable energy. Third, we had to go forward.
Since then, a surge in public and private investment has sped up innovation more quickly than I dared anticipate. I'm encouraged about the future because of this progress.
However, I am also pragmatic about the here and now. Although global emissions are still rising every year, it is still necessary for the globe to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions from 51 billion tonnes to zero. If you keep up with the annual IPCC reports, you've probably seen that the likelihood of keeping the increase in global temperature to 1.5 or even 2 degrees Celsius is dwindling. Furthermore, several of the clean technologies we need are still a long way from being widely usable, affordable solutions.
The previous ten years have seen us finally get moving. Over the next three, we must advance further and more quickly. If we dedicate the next generation to organising the biggest crisis response in human history, I still think we can avert a climate catastrophe.
Why is the energy transition so difficult?
We need to start by asking where the 51 billion tonnes of emissions originate from in order to comprehend what it will take to reach zero. Unfortunately, the solution is found everywhere and in everything.
Almost every human action generates greenhouse gas emissions. People immediately consider energy, where there is a road to zero due to the fact that wind and solar are currently less expensive than fossil fuels. However, just 26% of world emissions are caused by electricity. Lithium-ion batteries have also made it conceivable to envision a net-zero future for automobile transportation. However, less than 50% of the 16% of emissions from the transportation sector come from automobiles. The emissions from long-distance travel in aeroplanes, cargo ships, and heavy-duty trucks are not significantly reduced by lithium-ion batteries.
Buildings and agriculture together account for 7% and 21% of emissions, respectively. Manufacturing, which produces items like cement, plastic, and steel that are essential to contemporary living, accounts for 30% of all emissions. There is only one steel factory and none of the world's cement factories produce carbon dioxide at this time.
You can see how more or less every element of our life adds to the issue if you're reading this while eating lunch on a plastic device in your climate-controlled concrete and steel office building that you travelled to by bus.
Everywhere: More than 70 nations, including major polluters like the United States and the European Union, have committed to achieving net zero. But even if the US and Europe do, the issue won't have been resolved. The majority of the world's population—75 percent—resides in developing nations like Brazil, China, India, and South Africa, which traditionally contributed very little to global warming but now account for two-thirds of all greenhouse gas emissions. China emits more than a quarter of all emissions. Therefore, solutions cannot be predicated on particular circumstances in a single nation or region. Otherwise, the temperature will continue to rise anywhere they are used.
Why we can't address climate change by ourselves is revealed by thinking globally rather than nationally. by using less energy. Low- and middle-income countries are building aggressively to achieve the standard of living their people aspire to—and they should be. Many countries in Europe and North America filled the atmosphere with carbon to achieve prosperity, and it is both unrealistic and unfair to expect everyone else to forgo a more comfortable life because that carbon turned out to change the climate.
The "everything, everywhere" problem has three solutions. First, we need to develop clean technologies to replace all of the current emissions-producing processes we employ, such as new methods for producing steel, powering aircraft, and fertilising fields.
Second, we need to lower the price of emerging clean technology so they can compete globally rather than just in developed nations. The "Green Premium," which I refer to as being the price differential between any current technology and the clean alternative, is essential to my vision of how the world might avert a climate catastrophe. Green Premiums must be close to, equal to, or less than zero. The vast majority of purchasers just won't select clean cement if it costs twice as much as conventionally made cement, for instance it.
World just eight days.
The quick deployment of these cost-competitive technologies is the third component of the solution. When you contemplate the staggering scope of the task, it takes time to replace every single piece of infrastructure devoted to doing things the old way with infrastructure devoted to doing things the new way.
For instance, the number of coal-fired power plants worldwide is at 2,412 and continues to rise. It will be necessary to replace each and every one of those plants. Alternately, close your eyes and focus on the Hebron-Ben Nevis oil field off the coast of Newfoundland. It will cost $7 billion, run constantly for 30 years, employ hundreds of people, and produce enough oil to last the entire world.
We use so much energy, and we have invested so much in the machinery to generate it. Now, in the span of about 30 years, we have to decommission it all and start over again with clean technologies. I have more confidence in markets than many other people, but even I don’t think the market by itself can press reset on an entire economy in just a few decades. We need a plan to speed the process up.
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